Every year, India waits for the monsoon like clockwork. June brings the first showers, July strengthens them, and by August, the country usually hits peak rainfall.
But 2026 is not following that script.
June has stayed unusually dry across large parts of the country. Now, early forecasts suggest that July rainfall may also stay below normal levels.
This is not just a delayed monsoon. It is a weak start that could stretch into the heart of the season.
And that is what makes this year different.
What’s Happening Right Now
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has flagged that rainfall in June has been below the long period average. In simple terms, India has received less rain than what is considered normal based on decades of data.
Key signals from IMD updates include:
Uneven rainfall distribution across states
Longer dry spells between rain events
Weak early monsoon progression into central and northern India
Now, forecasts for July are not very reassuring either. Early model forecasts suggest rainfall may stay below average again, which means India could enter the core monsoon phase with an existing deficit.
That combination matters.
Because July is usually the month that corrects June’s gaps.
Has This Happened Before?
Yes, India has seen weak monsoon starts before.
For example, during El Niño-linked years like 2002, 2019, 2015 and 2018, India saw delayed or uneven rainfall in the early monsoon phase. In those years, rainfall eventually improved in some regions, but the distribution stayed patchy.
What is different now is the timing of the concern.
In past weak-start years, July often showed recovery early. This year, forecasts are already warning that July may not fully compensate for June’s shortfall.
That reduces the buffer India usually depends on.
So Why Is The Rainfall Weak This Year?
There is no single reason. Meteorologists track a mix of global and regional factors.
Here are the main ones shaping this year’s monsoon:
Ocean temperature changes in the Pacific
Shifts in wind patterns that guide monsoon moisture
Uneven heating of land and sea surfaces
Long-term climate variability affecting monsoon timing
But one of the key global factors stands out in most global reporting this year.
El Niño.
What Is El Niño And How Does It Change India’s Rain?
El Niño is a climate pattern where the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual.
It sounds distant, but it directly affects India’s monsoon.
Here is how it works in simple steps:
Warmer Pacific waters shift global wind circulation
These shifts weaken the normal flow of moisture towards India
The monsoon winds lose strength or arrive late
Rainfall becomes uneven and often below normal
El Niño years are often linked with weaker monsoon performance in India, though the impact can vary depending on other atmospheric conditions.
So, El Niño does not “stop” the monsoon.
It disrupts its rhythm.
Why Weak Early Monsoon Rainfall Matters
A weak June alone is not unusual, but when July also stays below average, the risk increases.
The Centre has already prepared contingency plans for 12 states, including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh, focusing on rain-dependent and drought-prone regions if rainfall stays below normal in the early monsoon phase.
Farmers are hit first as crops like rice, maize and pulses depend on timely rainfall, and delays push sowing cycles back. Reservoir levels also take a hit since they rely heavily on June-July rains to refill.
The impact then moves to food supply chains, where lower output can tighten availability later, and cities, where rising demand strains already limited water systems.
The next few weeks are crucial as the monsoon usually builds momentum in July. If it doesn’t strengthen, recovery becomes harder later.
Longer term, the monsoon is increasingly shaped by global climate patterns like El Niño and regional warming, leading to uneven rainfall, longer dry spells, and shorter recovery windows.
It does not mean monsoon failure, but growing volatility.
